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关注美联储纪要:降息预期犹在 超鸽言论恐令美元承压

2019-07-16 点击:1478
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在全球贸易关系的背景下,市场担心美联储6月份货币政策会议纪要将于7月11日凌晨2点宣布。会议纪要有助于更深入了解FOMC成员的观点,投资者担心美联储是否进一步发布了7月份降息的信号。 7月11日22:00,美联储主席鲍威尔将就参议院财政委员会的美国半年度货币政策报告作证。一些分析师指出,如果会议纪要太过鸽子,暗示今年的降息可能会引发美元的下跌。

对于美联储6月维持利率不变,预计降息将下降,市场关注6月会议纪要

6月20日凌晨2点,北京时间,美联储宣布6月利率决议,宣布将维持利率2.25-2.50%,并表示美国经济面临的不确定性将增加,并采取相应措施将采取措施确保美国经济的持续扩张。虽然市场一直期待美联储降息,但市场上并没有鸽子,最后宣布稳定。

近一半的美联储官员认为今年降息是合适的。与之前决议的内容相比,6月份的决议声明明显转变了鸽子,导致黄金价格上涨,美元下跌。美联储在声明中指出,在确定未来利率调整的时机和规模时,美联储将评估当前和预期的经济状况,以反对充分就业和对称通胀率两个目标,并考虑就业市场状况和通货膨胀压力。以及一系列因素,如通胀预期指标,金融市场和国际经济。

根据7月5日公布的数据,美国6月非农就业事故增加224,000,大大高于此前的7.5万,也超过了三个月的平均值171,000。随着国际贸易紧张局势的缓和以及美国就业数据的强劲表现,近期市场对美联储7月降息预期的下滑已经下降。

The attention of the market turned to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony this week. Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, said that this will be one of Powell's most important moments of the year. He will either lead the market or stay in line with market expectations. JanuChan, senior economist at St. George's Bank in Sydney, said the market has lowered expectations for the Fed's relaxation policy, but the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates at the meeting at the end of this month.

As of July 9th, Beijing time, the Fed's future interest rate forecast shows that the probability of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on July 31 is 100%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is as high as 97.5%. Therefore, what Powell said is critical to determining market expectations before the interest rate meeting at the end of this month.

Regarding whether the Fed cut interest rates in July, there are differences in institutional views

In fact, for the Fed to cut interest rates in July, there are still many differences between institutions.

Merrill Lynch pointed out in the July 5 report that the agency was very satisfied with the strong non-agricultural data in June and the fact that the Fed will not cut interest rates in July and wait for a rate cut in September. Kay's macro suspicion that Fed Chairman Powell will use the semi-annual testimony in Congress to overturn expectations of a rate cut later this month.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist AthanasiosVamvakidis said that the overall situation can not prove that the current market's aggressive policy easing expectations are reasonable. This week's semi-annual testimony of the Fed is very important, which will be Powell's opportunity to provide some guidance to the market.

Bloomberg economists Carl Riccadonna and Yelena Shulyatyeva believe that although the Fed removed the word "patience" from policy guidance at the June meeting, the strong pace of job market recruitment will allow FOMC to postpone small-scale interest rate cuts until September.

xx花旗经济学家认为,美联储7月降息并非板上钉钉。该行对美联储7月维持利率不变的预测越来越有信心,与许多投资者和分析师的看法背道而驰。理由是6月非农就业报告表现向好,贸易局势趋于缓和,因此预计美联储或在7月会议上持观望态度。花旗还提到,美联储静默期在即,本周是美联储改变市场预期的最后机会,关注美联储主席鲍威尔周三和周四在国会的证词,预计不会有任何过于明确的陈述,但可能会了解到,美联储7月会议上会有哪些选项。花旗最后提醒称,本周四美国将公布CPI数据,预计相关数据将令缺乏通胀压力的措辞继续存在。

不过,也有一些机构相信美联储7月会实行降息。三菱日联的分析师预计美联储会在7月降息25个基点。就业增长的整体趋势仍在走软,不过基于较大幅度降息的所带来下行风险已减轻,短线美元应该会继续保持坚挺

外汇分析师ColinLawrence称,在美联储6月份会议纪要公布前,美元可能仍将承压。他预测,如果会议纪要过于鸽派,暗示FOMC正在考虑今年降息,那么美元兑英镑可能会下跌。

来源:汇通网

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